Sometimes, you have to lose in order to win. A few examples come to mind. Obi-Wan Kenobi in Star Wars. Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings. And after this week's events: Iran’s progressive youth.
Many people around the world viewed the victory of Ahmadinejad as a defeat in the war against Islamic extremism. Under that same thinking, supreme leader Khameini’s suppression of protests today is another defeat. But this is far from the truth. It is a defeat for Mousavi and Rafsanjani, but a win in the war against extremism. For Ahmadinejad, it is not a “definitive victory,” as Grand Ayatollah Khameini described it this morning. In fact, the election results and subsequent protests are even better than if Mousavi had won.
Obama was right when he said there would probably have been little difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. Western media have portrayed Mousavi as a progressive artist that came back to politics after seclusion to right what went wrong in his country (not unlike Obi-Wan). But we must not forget, Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and other allies are members of the Islamic establishment. They might call themselves “reformist,” but compared to Western standards, they are probably to the right even of Rush Limbaugh. (Mousavi and Ahmadinejad have been called the Obama and Bush of Iran, respectively. This may be a valid comparison, but this does not imply change. Compare how US foreign policy has changed from Obama to Bush—rhetoric is different but the same policies remain.)
Much better than a slightly less extreme government, is a movement among young people for real change. Young people (under 30) make up 70% of the Iranian population. If this movement of protest continues to spread among the youth (with the help of the web), it could create a new revolution in Iran that would bring lasting change to the region. There is a powerful and intense energy that can engulf and unite young people. Consider the following passage from Hunter S. Thompson’s Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (a reflection on the counterculture of the 60s):
“San Francisco in the middle sixties was a very special time and place to be a part of. Maybe it meant something…History is hard to know, because of all the hired bullshit, but even without being sure of “history” it seems entirely reasonable to think that every now and then the energy of a whole generation comes to a head in a long fine flash, for reasons that nobody really understands at the time — and which never explain, in retrospect, what actually happened…There was a fantastic universal sense that whatever we were doing was right, that we were winning…And that, I think, was the handle—that sense of inevitable victory over the forces of Old and Evil. Not in any mean or military sense; we didn’t need that. Our energy would simply prevail. There was no point in fighting — on our side or theirs. We had all the momentum; we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave.”
By striking down Mousavi, Ahmadinejad and Khameini have made the Iranian progressive movement more powerful than they could ever imagine.
