Over the last decade, the Republican party has not lived up to its conservative values regarding fiscal issues. Until recently, the far right-wing focused increasingly on social issues. Consider, for example, Bush's gaping budget deficits. Or better yet, the rise of politicians such as Huckabee or Palin, both of whom's appeal is their social conservatism. Both can be described as either uninformed, undistinguished, or both in the fiscal realm. Given recent developments in GOP politics, it seems this trend has finally reversed, though ironically this reversal may not be as good for the deficit as one might expect.
Two prominent and formerly popular GOP politicians have been ousted as prospective Congressional representatives of the Republican Party over the last two weeks--Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett. Bennett is strong on social issues and endorsed by the NRA. Bennett's opponents (both relatively unknown: attorney Mike Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater) "campaigned largely by saying they're better suited to rein in government spending than Bennett" (as reported by the Associated Press). Charlie Crist lost the GOP primary for Senator largely because of his support for President Obama's stimulus package. Both politicians lost to candidates with strong support from the fiscally conservative Tea Party movement.
The shift in emphasis from social to fiscal issues will continue into the mid-term elections and will result in many formerly unknown politicians holding a disproportionate amount of power in Congress. These new members of congress will also be more vigilant of succeeding where their predecessors failed. Ironically, an increased emphasis on fiscal issues by GOP members of Congress is not necessarily good news for the deficit as it increases the probability of gridlock.
It is becoming increasingly likely that Pelosi will have to give up the gavel, resulting in a divided Congress next year, with the House controlled by the GOP and the Senate still in the hands of Democrats. It's hard to see how any serious fiscal reform can take place in such an environment. Republicans will demand spending cuts and Democrats will demand tax increases. Compromise will be more difficult than ever. The Senate will become more vulnerable to the filibuster, the House more conservative, but Obama will preserve his ability to veto, resulting in a distinctly different political atmosphere in the Senate, House, and White House. It is useful in this case to look back at the negotiations for the stimulus package, which did not garner any GOP votes despite consisting of 1/3 tax cuts.
