This summer while living in Berlin, I watched Barack Obama give his historic speech at the Siegessäule in the Tiergarten. Apart from getting a nasty sting from a bee outside the Chancellor’s apartment, it was a great experience especially after being scorned by Germans for the last eight years for being an American. My close relatives would disparage American “imperialism,” even though it was often clear they did not fully understand the situation. For this reason I was surprised that the crowd’s cheers didn’t die down when Sen. Obama called for increased European involvement in Afghanistan.
It is almost a year later and Obama has reiterated his call for increased European support in Afghanistan, but this time as President. Even though Germany and Europe as a whole hold Obama in high regard, their commitment of 5,000 extra troops and trainers is nothing in comparison to the US’ 21,000. In a press conference after the summit, Obama expressed satisfaction with the number, calling it a “down payment.” However, Politico reported the outcome represented a limit on Obama’s diplomacy. The article argues European adulation of Obama does not translate into new policies.
I do not agree with Politico’s conclusion. Obama might yet see dividends from his diplomatic efforts. In fact, I would be very surprised if he doesn’t. The main barrier for European support in Afghanistan is domestic political sentiments. Before the election in an interview with Bill O’Reilly, Obama said the reason Europeans won’t fight is because of a strong anti-Iraq attitude in Europe. When O’Reilly sarcastically asked if Obama was going to change this with his “magic wand,” Obama replied he would engage in “deliberate diplomacy” and change policy in Iraq. So far he has stuck to his word. He has shifted troops from Iraq to Afghanistan and stuck to his diplomatic attitude.
There is a distinct difference between US diplomacy with the EU and countries like Russia and China. The EU seem much more genuine. Their policy positions are based on domestic situations within their countries, while Russia and China use diplomacy more as a game to further their interests. During the G20, the European position against a coordinated stimulus was based on the economic situation within their borders. Their demographic situation means large government debt is particularly precarious—that is not diplomacy that is a reality. During the NATO summit, European leaders do not have the political capital to send troops to Afghanistan. European public opinion needs more time before it will accept this. Sarkozy already took a big step rejoining NATO. Merkel needs to wait for this year’s elections before attempting any such move, especially while her CDU is gradually losing votes to the FDP. Maybe that is what Obama meant when he called NATO’s decision a “down payment.”
Now compare that to Russia and China. A few days before G20, Medvedev and Hu met to discuss an alternative global reserve currency. STRATFOR considers much of Russia’s actions, such as their response to the US’ planned ABM system in Poland, to be diplomatic huff intended to draw concessions. About China and its recent calls for a new global reserve currency, STRATFOR writes, “None of this amounts to anything substantial, and China knows it — the purpose is to put the United States in a defensive position ahead of the summit, thus pre-empting potential criticism aimed at China from any direction. In truth, China wants to protect the value of the dollar to maintain the worth of its own dollar-denominated investments. Deep down, China sees the U.S.-centered global system as essential, and does not wish to stir up bad feelings with the United States, which would only postpone global economic recovery.” The Europeans might be stubborn, but at least they are honest.
At first I was hoping Obama would resurrect the United States Information Agency as McCain had pledged during the campaign. I no longer think this is necessary. Obama does a good enough job interacting with foreign media that there is no need for it. Consider his interview with Al-Arabiya, his town hall meeting in Strasbourg, or even small gestures such as allowing foreign media to ask him questions during press conferences. Obama has embraced soft power and eventually this will protect him from more than shoes at an Iraqi press conference.
