In a press conference yesterday, Iranian President Ahmadinejad ruled out compromising on Iran's "undeniable right" to a nuclear program but stated he is open for discussion with Pres. Obama. This statement indicates the challenges facing President Obama's Iranian policy. Obama campaigned on the premise that he could talk to antagonistic leaders without preconditions and achieve multipolar solutions. But that is virtually impossible as long as Ahmadinejad is president of Iran.
As long as Obama follows a multi-polar strategy, Iran will be able to delay by playing members of the engagement against each other. Consider the deadline set by Obama for Iran to come to the negotiating table, which is less than three weeks away. If Iran refuses to talk, the G-8 has promised "crippling sanctions." The delegation that will negotiate with Iran consists of the UN security council plus Germany (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China). The UK, France, and Germany can be expected to follow Obama's lead. But Russia and China care much less about a nuclear Iran than the US. Moreover, Russia and China have a significant stake in keeping Iran stable and gain nothing from sanctions. It is in Russia's interest to keep the US occupied in the Middle East and away from its periphery. Russia also trades with Iran and will want to protect this. China depends on Iran for commodities. As long as Iran is China's third largest oil supplier, China will not be willing to get tough on Iran while Iran maintains a semblance of co-operation.
Ahmadinejad has taken advantage of this division. His recent statements were vague enough for Russia and China to claim Iran is willing to negotiate, drawing the process out further. Ahmadinejad also notably invited leaders from these countries to Tehran, something Obama is unlikely to do for domestic political reasons. If parties can't degree on where to meet to negotiate, the negotiations are likely to be just as unproductive.
On the other hand, Obama has no alternative to a multi-polar strategy. Sanctions can only be effective if Russia and China participate. The US simply has little leverage over Iran, having exhausted most of its options in the past. Whatever happens in Iran will ultimately depend on Russia and China.
