Russia seems to have increased its use of soft power to influence former Soviet states to cozy back up to Russia. One example is an address to the people of Ukraine posted on Medvedev's blog. This address laments the current relations between Kiev and Moscow and emphasizes their common cultural heritage. Another possible example of Russian soft power in Ukraine was Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill's visit to Ukraine a few weeks ago. Both of these actions stressed a common culture and a new beginning. They are directed at Ukraine's coming elections, where pro-Western leader Viktor Yushchenko is likely to lose. Another example is Putin's recent letter to the Polish public denouncing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that divided Poland between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union.
Russia's reconciliation tour is similar to Obama's at the start of his presidency. Both countries are using public diplomacy to better relations between their states. It will be interesting to see the reaction of Ukraine and Poland. My expectation is that it will have little to do with anything Medvedev or Putin says, but a lot to do with Obama's upcoming decision on the anti-ballistic missile defense system in Poland. Especially now that Germany and Russia have established better relations, it will be more difficult for Poland to resist Russian influence. I'm wondering whether this new attitude towards Russia in easter Europe is a sustainable trend or simply due to the fact that America is preoccupied in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Another factor with surprising influence in Russo-German relations is the Opel deal. The question of to whom to sell Opel to has turned into a geopolitical standoff between Russia and the US. The issue is further complicated by private equity group RHJI continually improving its bid. It is now clear that RHJI is financially the better option for the German Government as it leaves it with much less debt to guarantee, a potential issue in the upcoming German elections only 4 weeks away. However, Russia is sure to be irritated if the Magna bid is not accepted. A recent, must-read Der Spiegel article describes how after a conversation with Obama on the subject, Merkel remarked the trans-Atlantic relationship was being "put to the test." A quote from the article:
What was probably the biggest miscalculation on the part of the German government was its underestimation of the importance of the Russian factor in American thinking. April 28, the date on which Russian carmaker Gaz announced its interest in Opel together with Magna, was for many in Washington and Detroit the day on which that consortium lost its appeal. Russian involvement is no small matter for Americans. GM is one of the biggest suppliers of foreign cars on the Russian market and wants to continue to maintain that position. At the same time, being forced to sell off part of GM "to the Russians" is something that would be seen by many Americans as a humiliating experience, even 20 years after the end of the Cold War.
The problem for Merkel is that she has no control over the decision. She has promised Medvedev she will support the Magna plan, who suggested a major Russian shipping deal in return. Geopolitically, this cannot end well for Merkel, though I think she is probably more worried about the effect on the upcoming elections.
