It seems as if Russian-American relations have improved significantly over the last year. The rhetoric coming out of Russia towards the US has been much milder. Russia has shown increasingly strong support for sanctions against Iran. Most importantly, Obama and Medvedev signed the new START treaty about a week ago in Prague. Perhaps Obama's push to "reset" relations with Russia have worked. However, I doubt that's the case. A country as driven by realpolitik as Russia would never compromise on personal politics alone. A closer look reveals Russia has reason to be accommodating given its strong successes in securing its "near-abroad" over the last year.
The trend of color revolutions of the mid-2000s has now been abruptly reversed. Ukraine, which experienced its "orange" revolution in 2004, has now reversed the last four years with the election of Viktor Yanukovych, the same eastern-leaning candidate who was defeated by Yushchenko in 2004. Poland seems to be under increasing pressure. Poland became vulnerable after the US compromised with Russia on its anti-ballistic missile. Now, after a dubious plane crash in Russia, it will be interesting to see how Polish voters react.
The most change has come in Kyrgyzstan, an oasis of US support in Central Asia after its 2005 "Tulip" revolution. The recent April 7th coup in Kyrgyzstan brought in a new administration more favorable to Russia than the US. While I have no way of knowing the exact role of Russia in this coup, it is telling that Russia immediately recognized the new government (even before the regime change was complete) and issued a $50 million loan to the country. Russian interference in Kyrgyzstan will only increase, as evident in Medvedev's recent speech to the Brookings Institution, where he stressed the need to intervene to prevent Kyrgyzstan from becoming "another Afghanistan."
Medvedev had an interesting comment in a recent press conference. He said, “This scenario [Kyrgyzstan uprising] could repeat anywhere when the authorities lose their link with people." This statement sounds very much like a threat to the other former Soviet states that have formed closer ties with the West.
I'm not sure Obama's trade--increased co-operation with Iran in exchange for less direct involvement in former Soviet states--is necessarily a bad one. Obama's foreign policy goals are much more ambitious than George W. Bush's. Furthermore, Obama relies much more on international consensus than his predecessor. But either way, Russia is clearly enjoying and encouraging the changes occurring in its near-abroad. Whether these changes would have occurred without the Obama-Medvedev agreement is only conjecture.
